Subsidy Removal: The Audio Reform That Has Yet to Become a Visual Reality

Subsidy Removal

The "Audio" Reform That Has Yet to Become a "Visual" Reality

When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidy on May 29, 2023, his government presented it as a bold and necessary reform. Nigerians were told it was a painful but essential step to rescue the economy, fight corruption, and redirect scarce resources toward national development.

However, more than a year later, the promised benefits remain largely theoretical — heard in speeches and policy documents, but invisible in the lived reality of Nigerians. The hardship has intensified, while the gains have remained elusive.

1. Infrastructure Investment: Promises Made, Little Delivered

What was promised:

Trillions of naira saved from subsidy removal would be used to invest in critical infrastructure such as roads, hospitals, schools, mass transit, and power.

Reality on ground:

There is no evidence of significant capital projects tied directly to subsidy savings. Roads remain in disrepair, the health sector is overstretched, and public education is in crisis. What Nigerians have seen instead is a spike in government borrowing and worsening debt servicing costs — not better infrastructure.

2. Macroeconomic Stability: The Naira is Weaker, Not Stronger

What was promised:

Subsidy removal and market reforms would help stabilize the naira, reduce fiscal deficits, and restore investor confidence.

Reality on ground:

The naira has experienced unprecedented devaluation, inflation has soared past 35%, and food prices have tripled in many states. Instead of economic stability, Nigerians are grappling with the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades. Foreign investment remains sluggish, and businesses are shutting down due to high operational costs.

3. Private Sector Investment in Oil Sector: Still Waiting

What was promised:

Deregulation would attract private players into the downstream oil sector, creating competition, improving supply, and reducing prices over time.

Reality on ground:

Only a few companies have entered the space, and fuel prices continue to rise. There is no significant reduction in pump price, and the market still relies heavily on imports. Local refining capacity — including the much-hyped Dangote refinery — is yet to impact domestic supply significantly.

4. Job Creation and Economic Opportunities: Worsening Unemployment

What was promised:

Fuel deregulation would unlock opportunities across the petroleum value chain, from refining to distribution, generating thousands of jobs.

Reality on ground:

Unemployment has risen, not fallen. Companies are downsizing due to the rising cost of diesel, petrol, and operational expenses. Informal sector workers — such as transporters, food vendors, artisans — are the worst hit by high fuel prices. The job opportunities from the "new economy" are still a dream.

5. Cushioning Measures: Poor Implementation, Weak Impact

What was promised:

The Tinubu administration promised cash transfers, mass transit buses, fertilizer support, and SME grants to reduce the impact of subsidy removal.

Reality on ground:

These programs are either poorly implemented, shrouded in secrecy, or completely inactive in many states. The few cash transfers rolled out lack transparency, while promises of CNG buses and mass transit schemes have been largely invisible. Farmers complain of no access to subsidized fertilizer, and many SMEs have folded due to operating costs.

6. Reduced Corruption and Leakages: Old Faces, New Scandals

What was promised:

Removing subsidy would kill the corruption cartel that benefitted from fuel smuggling and inflated subsidy claims.

Reality on ground:

Smuggling of fuel still persists, albeit in new forms. The lack of transparency in how subsidy savings are spent has created new concerns of corruption. Public trust is eroding fast, as the government has not published a clear audit of subsidy savings and their utilization.

7. National Unity and Shared Sacrifice: Only the Poor are Bleeding

What was promised:

This reform was marketed as a national sacrifice for a better future.

Reality on ground:

While the poor and middle class are bearing the brunt, political elites continue to enjoy bloated allowances, luxury convoys, and foreign trips. There is no evidence that those in power have adjusted their lifestyle to reflect the economic hardship. The call for sacrifice has been one-sided, deepening anger and disillusionment.

Conclusion: An Audio Policy Without a Visual Result

Subsidy removal was supposed to mark a turning point in Nigeria’s economic history. Instead, it has become a symbol of failed policy communication, weak planning, and poor implementation.

It is an “audio” policy — loudly defended in speeches and policy briefs — but mute in reality, where Nigerians are poorer, hungrier, and more hopeless.

For this reform to mean anything, the government must urgently:

Show clear evidence of how savings are used; Roll out practical palliatives that reach real people; Cut waste at the top of government; Strengthen transparency and communication; And review the sequencing of reforms to reduce their devastating impact on vulnerable citizens.

Until then, the so-called subsidy gains remain a ghost — heard, but never seen. 

Sanusi Musa